FoxAI 翻譯及編輯在上壹篇文章《建議香港發行以外匯儲備背書的港元穩定幣》中，我們提倡引入以港元為基礎的穩定幣（HKDG），並以香港目前高達 4300 億美元的外匯儲備為支撐。我們認為，這壹舉措將為香港帶來額外流動資金，活化金融市場，助力政府投資項目和國家重要發展戰略等重大利益。
盡管政府沒有官方回應，但我們的建議在社會上引起了廣泛的積極反響。鑒於數字資產領域的迅速發展，特別是現實世界資產（RWA）的代幣化和主要實體推出自己的穩定幣的計劃，這些發展突顯了發行HKDG的迫切性，我們也在這篇跟進文章中進壹步證實了我們的立場。
現實世界資產（RWA）代幣化， 即將有形或無形資產轉化為數字代幣，是數字資產領域的壹次突破性轉變，有潛力重新定義市場格局。通過區塊鏈技術，RWA 代幣化提升了交易透明度，加強了安全性，並通過實現部分所有權拓廣了流動性。這種方法既解決了傳統金融體系效率低下的問題，又縮小了數字資產領域與實體經濟之間的差距，從而推動了 Web3 的發展。
目前僅美債和全球房地產市場的市值就分別達到了 240萬億和280 萬億美元，更不用提還有其他的現實資產，這些資產中哪怕只要有百分之壹通過RWA代幣化交易，就會對數字資產市場產生重大影響。隨著代幣化滲透到從商品到知識產權等各種資產類別，數字資產市場必將迎來爆炸式增長。
可以預見的是，由於對 RWA 代幣化的監管限制，公共區塊鏈上 RWA 代幣的流動大部分將會以穩定幣的形式發生。因此，我們必須為穩定幣市值的急劇擴大做好準備。
正如我們在上壹篇文章中所論述的，香港具有引領這場革命的獨特優勢。然而，這壹前景取決於香港能否及時發行由香港外匯儲備支持的穩定幣 HKDG。如果香港落後於已經準備發行大量美元穩定幣的美國主要實體，香港將錯失良機。
值得壹提的是，由在港的商業機構發行各自的港幣穩定幣是不夠的。不同機構發行各自版本的港元穩定幣導致碎片化及混亂，因為這些機構都沒有足夠的體量挑戰 USDT 等成熟的美元穩定幣。如果不通過統壹的布局發行外匯儲備支持的穩定幣 HKDG，由機構各自單獨的發行穩定幣毫無疑問只會成為邊緣化的利基產品，這根本無法形成氣候挑戰成熟的美元穩定幣。更糟糕的是，這會助長壹種虛假的進步感，掩蓋錯失良機的現實。
這裏我們也可以考慮采取壹種折衷的策略，即讓政府授權商業機構發行統壹的HKDG穩定幣。這種方案可能更能激發商業機構的參與積極性，但同時也將帶來諸多新的挑戰。這些挑戰涵蓋了備書、利益與風險的監管平衡、保險、托管、安全等壹系列待解決的問題。
商業機構發行穩定幣的動力在很大程度上來自於當前的高利率環境。然而，壹旦利率下降，這些機構必然會追求更高的回報，從而可能增加風險。同時，如果監管過於嚴格，這些發行機構可能無法從中獲利，從而失去了持續發展的動力。此外，在這個方案下，香港政府將無法享受到發行HKDG所帶來的收益。因此，我們應該以全局的視角來看待政府授權商業機構發行HKDG的這壹階段性策略，並將政府統壹發行HKDG作為我們的最終目標，為此持續努力。
雖然港元可隨時兌換其他貨幣，但可能由於它與美元掛鉤，因此港元很少用於國際貿易或作為全球儲備貨幣。香港如果能抓住RWA 代幣化的機遇發行HKDG，港元作為國際貨幣的潛力勢必會得以大幅度提升，甚至可以在壹些領域挑戰美元的主導地位。
我們之前曾指出，推出HKDG可以提升港元國際地位，尤其是在數字資產領域。鑒於USDT和USDC穩定幣都出現過信譽危機，市場對高可信度穩定幣的需求十分強烈。而借助香港政府外匯儲備的支持，HKDG 將享有無與倫比的可信度。由於港元與美元掛鉤，HKDG 可能成為挑戰美元穩定幣主導地位的壹個極具吸引力的方案。
我們認為，HKDG 的及時發行，加上 RWA 代幣化的即將出現，可以為加強港元的國際化奠定基礎，並為挑戰美元的主導地位提供壹條途徑。盡管目前穩定幣市場相對於全球經濟規模很小，但借助 RWA 代幣化的勢頭強勁，穩定幣市場將迎來繁榮。在美國主要金融巨頭進入市場之前，HKDG若能及早占據有利地位並站穩腳跟，即使在穩定幣市場激增之後，HKDG仍能保持領先地位。如果 RWA 代幣化市場的市值達到數萬億，而 HKDG 能夠占據穩定幣市場的 10%，這將是港元國際化的重大勝利，也是對美元主導地位的實質性挑戰。
我們再次強烈呼籲香港政府采取行動發行HKDG。我們有壹個狹窄的機會之窗，將香港真正打造成 Web3 的主要國際樞紐。我們預計這個機會之窗最多開放壹年左右。這是壹個重要的布局：不僅關系到香港能否成為數字資產和 Web3 發展的世界中心，還關系到挑戰美元主導地位的國家戰略目標。我們壹定要抓住這壹歷史時機。香港等不起，國家戰略更等不起。
In our previous article "Proposing Hong Kong's Issuance of a Stablecoin Backed by Foreign Exchange Reserves," we advocated for the introduction of a Hong Kong dollar-based stablecoin (HKDG) backed by Hong Kong's foreign exchange reserves, which currently stand at a staggering 430 billion US dollars. We believe this move will inject additional liquidity into Hong Kong, revitalize its financial markets, and aid the government's investment projects and major national development strategies.
Though the government hasn't formally responded, our suggestion has garnered widespread positive attention from the community. Given the rapid growth in the digital assets realm, especially the tokenization of Real World Assets (RWA) and significant entities launching their stablecoins, it underscores the urgency of issuing HKDG. We reaffirm our stance in this follow-up article.
Rise in Tokenization of Real World Assets (RWA) Signifies a Surge in Demand for Stablecoins
The tokenization of RWAs, turning tangible or intangible assets into digital tokens, is a groundbreaking shift in the digital assets realm with the potential to redefine market dynamics. By leveraging blockchain technology, RWA tokenization boosts transactional transparency, enhances security, and improves liquidity through partial ownership. This approach not only addresses inefficiencies in the traditional financial system but also bridges the gap between the digital assets realm and the real economy, propelling Web3's growth.
Given that the market values of U.S. Treasury bonds and the global real estate market alone reach 240 trillion and 280 trillion US dollars respectively, let alone other RWAs, even if only 1% of these assets are traded through RWA tokenization, it would have a significant impact on the digital assets market. As tokenization permeates various asset categories from commodities to intellectual property rights, the digital assets market is poised for exponential growth.
It's foreseeable that, due to regulatory restrictions on RWA tokenization, the liquidity of RWA tokens on public blockchains will predominantly occur in the form of stablecoins. Thus, we must prepare for the dramatic expansion in the stablecoin market capitalization.
As we previously discussed, Hong Kong holds a unique position to spearhead this revolution. However, this vision hinges on Hong Kong's timely issuance of HKDG, backed by its foreign exchange reserves. If Hong Kong lags behind major U.S. entities preparing to issue a slew of U.S. dollar stablecoins, it risks missing a golden opportunity.
Worth noting is that having businesses in Hong Kong issue their HKD stablecoins won't suffice. Different entities issuing their versions of HKD stablecoins would lead to fragmentation and confusion, as they lack the scale to challenge established U.S. dollar stablecoins like USDT. Without a unified approach to issuing a foreign reserve-backed HKDG, individual stablecoins issued by different entities will inevitably become niche products on the sidelines, unable to challenge established U.S. dollar stablecoins. Worse, this would foster a false sense of progress, masking the reality of missed opportunities.
A compromise strategy could involve the government authorizing commercial entities to issue a unified HKDG stablecoin. While this may incentivize business participation, it comes with its set of challenges, spanning issues related to collateral, regulatory balance of interests and risks, insurance, custodianship, and security.
The motivation for businesses to issue stablecoins largely stems from the current high-interest-rate environment. Yet, once interest rates drop, these entities will likely seek higher returns, potentially escalating risks. Moreover, if regulations are too stringent, these issuers might find it unprofitable, dampening their drive to continue. Furthermore, under this scheme, the Hong Kong government won't reap the benefits of issuing HKDG. Hence, we should view the government authorizing businesses to issue HKDG as a transitional strategy, keeping the ultimate goal of a government-issued HKDG in sight.
Solidifying the Global Status of the Hong Kong Dollar to Challenge the U.S. Dollar Dominance
While the Hong Kong dollar can be exchanged with other currencies on demand, its peg to the U.S. dollar means it's seldom used in international trade or as a global reserve currency. If Hong Kong seizes the RWA tokenization opportunity to issue HKDG, it could substantially elevate the international potential of the Hong Kong dollar, potentially challenging the U.S. dollar's dominance in some areas.
As we pointed out before, introducing HKDG could elevate the international standing of the Hong Kong dollar, especially in the digital assets domain. Considering the credibility crises faced by stablecoins like USDT and USDC, there's a robust market demand for a highly trustworthy stablecoin. With the backing of the Hong Kong government's foreign exchange reserves, HKDG would enjoy unparalleled credibility. Due to the Hong Kong dollar's peg to the U.S. dollar, HKDG could become a compelling alternative to challenge the dominance of U.S. dollar stablecoins.
In our view, the timely issuance of HKDG, combined with the impending rise of RWA tokenization, can lay the foundation for bolstering the internationalization of the Hong Kong dollar and offer a pathway to challenge the U.S. dollar's dominance. While the current stablecoin market is minuscule compared to the global economy, with the strong momentum of RWA tokenization, the stablecoin market is set to flourish. If HKDG can establish an early foothold and solidify its position before major U.S. financial giants enter the scene, it will maintain its lead even when the stablecoin market surges. If the RWA tokenization market reaches tens of trillions in value and HKDG captures 10% of the stablecoin market, it will be a significant victory for the internationalization of the Hong Kong dollar and a tangible challenge to the U.S. dollar's supremacy.
Conclusion
We strongly urge the Hong Kong government to take action and issue HKDG. We have a narrow window of opportunity to truly establish Hong Kong as a primary international hub for Web3. We estimate this window to be open for roughly a year. This is a pivotal move – not only regarding positioning Hong Kong as the global center for digital assets and.